NFL Plays & Predictions: Week 8

Week 7 was a story straight out of Goldilocks and the Three Bears. Packers ML was too hot as Green Bay lost on a last second field goal, Raiders +3.5 was too cold as they were BLOWN OUT by the Rams, and Giants +10.5 was JUST RIGHT as it was the only pick we hit a week ago.

This weekend does not feature a ton I'm in love which in terms of match-ups. However, I feel like these three games are opportunities for us to get back in the winner's circle in the NFL.

Here's the games I'm focusing on this week:

Vikings +3.5 (-115 Hard ROck)

Although I'm a Vikings fan, believe me when I say that there is zero bias with this pick. In all honesty, I'm shocked this team is currently the last undefeated team in the NFL because Kyler Murray is our quarterback...

The real reason the Vikings have the record they do is because of Brian Flores on the defense (and Will Reichard). It's stunning to see what this defense has been able to do this season. They rank 2nd in fewest yards given up per game and 1st in fewest points given up per game. Teams with defenses that good will be in almost any game they play.

This season hasn't been the worst for the Lions either. They just aren't undefeated. There's two losses this season have come against the Panthers and the Bills. These are teams that people expect to be in the playoffs or the playoff picture at the end of the season.

Even though I have zero faith in the Vikings offense because of Kyler Murray, I believe in the Vikings defense to perform better and win the battle against the Lions offense.

Also, Dan Campbell is 0-2 against the Vikings when Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn aren't on the Lions sidelines.

Falcons ML (+115 SCORE)

I'm truly confused at how the Falcons are dogs coming into today's game against the Buccaneers. I know Tampa Bay won convincingly against Carolina last week, but this team has NOT been good at homes this season.

The Buccaneers are 0-4 at home this season and that's WITH Baker Mayfield playing in two of those four games.

The Falcons are a better team when Michael Penix Jr. is playing at quarterback for the team. They're 20-1 on the road this season and Penix was the starting quarterback for their two road wins.

I know the past doesn't matter when it comes to this season, but Atlanta is 3-0 in their last three trips for Tampa. I completely expect them to make it 4-0 in their last four trips today.

Patriots -6.5 (-115 SCORE)

Full transparency here. I was debating between this pick and the over in the Ravens/Bills game. I ultimately choose this pick for this write up, but I already apologize is I made the wrong decision.

The part that gave me hesitation with this pick is the Patriots record and ATS record on the road. However, the Dolphins come no where close to the caliber of opponent that the Patriots have played in their road games. New England has seen Chicago, Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Seattle in their four road games this seasons. Yes, they are 1-3 in those games, but those opponents are so much tougher than what the Patriots are facing today in Miami.

Miami is coming off of a solid performance against the Jets in New York last weekend, but the Jets haven't been the most consistent squad this season.

I fully trust Drake Maye and the Patriots to be able to get the job done and beat the Dolphins by at least a touchdown.

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