Patriots vs Bears Player Props Picks: NFL Week 7

Another Thursday night which means another start of the week for the NFL! We have a Super Bowl matchup tonight! 1985 Super Bowl Match-up to be exact where the Patriots will travel to Chicago for a showdown with DAAAAAAA BEARS!!!!

This write up is going to be different than the ones the past few weeks because I did not like a lot in terms of overs for this game. I think the offenses could struggle and the the game will be tough, close, and lower scoring.

I usually don't like doing this, but...let's attack some unders....

Prop #1: Caleb Williams U 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+122 Caesars)

Yes, Williams has only played three games because of the hammy injury, but he's not throwing a ton of touchdowns this season. He's thrown a total of three touchdowns in 2026 and two came in Week 1. This could be because once the Bears reach the redzone they focus on the rushing attack or because the Bears passing attack isn't a deep touchdown threat this season. Point is Williams isn't throwing touchdown through the air.

The Patriots defense is also limiting opposing quarterbacks in terms of touchdown in their last five games. Trevor Lawrence is the only quarterback in the Patriots last five games to throw more than one touchdown in the game. Three of the other quarterbacks they've played in this stretch include: Kirko Chains, Josh Allen, and Aaron Rodgers.

I expect the defense to travel to the Windy City and the Patriots keep Caleb Williams out of the endzone through the air. Plus money on this prop also makes it extra enticing.

Prop #2: Drake Maye U 20.5 Completions (-105 Hard Rock)

We were fading the Bears quarterback for this game. So it's only right we fade the Patriots quarterback too, right?

Drake Maye has performed better recently compared to how his season started, but he's only hit this mark for completions in half of his six games this season. It might not bode well for us to say he hit the over for completions in the lone primetime game he's played this season.

With that said, it's all about the defenses tonight. The Bears defense might not seem as good as last year, but they aren't bad. Jordan Love is the only opposing quarterback in the Bears last five games to hit the over for this prop (and that game was PERSONAL).

If this game stays close or the Patriots jump out to a lead, then they won't need to go one dimensional which will help us here for this prop.

Long Shot Prop: DeMario Douglas 1st Touchdown Scorer (+2200 Draft Kings/FanDuel/Caesars)

It was harder finding a long shot prop for this game. Mainly, it was harder because I personally don't LOVE this matchup as a gambler, but I was determined to find us something worthy.

The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five games, and three of those four first touchdowns were wide receiver touchdowns. Yes, AJ Brown is back tonight which could affect things, but I'm not scared. I ended up picking Douglas because he's recorded two of the last three first touchdowns for New England, and his odds are more juicy than Brown's odds.

The Bears have also scored the first touchdown quite a bit in their last five games (3). However, one of the games they didn't it was a opposing wide receiver who scored the touchdown (the other game had zero total touchdowns). Because of this, I feel Douglas at +2200 could be worth a 0.1 unit flyer to score first tonight.

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